Kevin Schneider

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<h2>Eastern Pacific Ocean</h2>We are keeping our eyes on TROPICAL STORM ERICK. An environment of low shear, warm sea surface temperatures and low-level moisture will allow Erick to strengthen significantly in the next two days and bring heavy rain and damaging winds to Mexico. The latest forecast from the NHC is that it will strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall near Acapulco, Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 143825-1750193005519.png">Heavy rainfall is expected to bring landslide and mudslide potential. Widespread totals in the coastal areas of Oaxaca are expected between 12-16". Isolated locations will receive up to 20". Travel plans in the area are discouraged.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/172031INTQPF_sm-1750193045162.gif"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 031736-1750151863022.png">The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record-breaking start, with five named storms: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, and now Erick. This level of early activity is well ahead of the seasonal average, which typically sees the first named storm by June 10, the second by June 24, and the third by July 6. Dalila forming on the 13th marked the fastest four storms to be named in the basin since record keeping began, beating 1974, which saw Dolores form by the 14th of June.ATLANTICThe Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, has remained quiet with no named storms forming so far. This lack of activity is being attributed to three key atmospheric factors: persistent wind shear, marginally warm water temperatures, and the presence of Saharan dust. &nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-29 104826-1748537463299.png">The Saharan dust, which often travels westward from Africa, can suppress tropical development by introducing dry, stable air into the atmosphere. In addition, wind shear is disrupting the organization of tropical waves and disturbances, preventing them from developing into more significant systems. While sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support storm formation, they are not as favorable as in recent years, further limiting activity.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-16 142900-1750105746265.png">Although the Atlantic is off to a slow start, this is not unusual for June. Historically, tropical activity in the Atlantic does not typically ramp up until later in the summer, particularly in August and September, with the peak occurring around the 15th of September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Day1SVR-1749823458384.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-29 104849-1748537876634.png">For now, the quiet beginning to the season is considered perfectly normal.&nbsp;The early season will more often see more tropical storms than hurricanes, but hurricanes can form and impact the United States, so it's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-prep-week-2025">always best to be prepared</a>. Andrea is the first name on the list in the Atlantic in 2025.NOAA and Colorado State are expecting an above-average season in the Atlantic Basin. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-predicts-above-average-2025-hurricane-season">Click here to read more.</a>

Alana Cameron

T.S. Erick to Strengthen, Hit Mexico

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As a frontal boundary moved through unstable air, strong to severe storms popped up across the plains and Midwest on Monday. These storms have brought tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A 101 mph wind gust was recorded in Wichita, Kansas! Waconia, Minnesota, recorded hailstones of up to 3.25" on Monday. That is around the size of a baseball! Twenty tornadoes were reported, most in Minnesota but also including this picturesque storm in Nebraska.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1934815766932803755" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1934815766932803755"></div><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 073823-1750167516776.png">ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE</h1>Can we get something that moves for once? It feels like every system we've had recently has its grip on us for a few days, not ones that are in and out of here. That's what happens this time of year. As the jet stream retreats north, there isn't nearly as much wind in the sails of these systems. The biggest concern with the afternoon/evening batch of storms will be more 70-100 mph winds and massive hail. With the confidence being high enough that we'll see widespread winds, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded portions of Kansas to a MODERATE risk for severe weather (4 out of 5).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 142508-1750192335432.png"><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 142542-1750192344826.png">Timing:</h1>Deep instability builds as an area of low pressure moves through Kansas. After dinner, a strong line will move out of Colorado and merge with storms out ahead of the low, creating a strong overnight MCS (Mesoscale Convective System).<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/06-17 hrrr 2pm-1750192417281.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Expect pockets of heavy rainfall to create localized flooding. A MODERATE risk (level 3 out of 4) of excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center highlights Kansas for the most likely area to see flooding. That includes Wichita, who is already reeling from strong overnight storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 143347-1750192434870.png">On Wednesday, the entire system will slide east. The center of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region, while deep Gulf moisture builds out ahead of the cold front. Because it is more frontally driven, damaging winds will be the primary threat. From Detroit to St. Louis, an Enhanced Risk from the Storm Prediction Center highlights the area most likely to see severe storms. This is also the spot with the best chance of a tornado.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 143405-1750192513140.png">By Thursday, the front moves to the East Coast, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/active-pattern-sparks-mid-atlantic-flood-severe-threat">impacting locations that saw extreme flooding earlier in the week</a>.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 143523-1750192539414.png">

100 mph Winds Reported in Kansas with More On The Way

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Tracey Anthony

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A Moderate Risk for excessive rain has been issued for PA and WV. This is a level 3 out of 4 flooding threat and indicates a significant potential for flash flooding, often associated with:<ul><li>Widespread rainfall</li><li>Saturated soils</li><li>Urban areas with poor drainage</li><li>Terrain that enhances runoff</li></ul>These areas were just hit hard this weekend and it will only take a little rain to cause major new impacts. Wheeling &amp; Fairmont WV, were impacted in a devastating way over the weekend.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1934617419605258267" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1934617419605258267"></div><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1934385430943928626" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1934385430943928626"></div>An active pattern is impacting the mid-Atlantic, so the flood threat continues this week. A combination of tropical moisture and an approaching cold front will continue to bring widespread showers, thunderstorms, and an elevated risk for severe and flash flooding.<h1>Forecast Rainfall:</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 142925-1750192184045.png">The atmosphere is saturated with dewpoints in the 70s. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible with strong storms, with new rain totals up to 3", falling on top of saturated soil. Flood Watches stretch from Virginia through Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio but most end tonight.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 143023-1750192240230.png">The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of this region under a Marginal Risk&nbsp;(Level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Tuesday. Damaging winds will be the primary concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 143123-1750192288788.png">Strong storms are expected Wednesday in the I-95 corridor from Philly to DC/Baltimore and the DelMarVa.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 143136-1750192302195.png">Catch your East Regional Forecast at :10 after each hour on WeatherNationTV.

Active Pattern Sparks Mid-Atlantic Flood and Severe Threat

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A powerful heat wave continues to grip the Southwest, with dangerously high temperatures impacting much of Arizona, southeastern California, and parts of southern Nevada. Another round of records was achieved on Monday across the southwest. Imperial, CA broke a new record. It recorded a high of 115°, beating out the old record of 114°. Monday was day two of record-breaking heat for Imperial, CA, and El Paso, TX.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/ERCORD FOFF-1750122902662.png">Cities like Tucson, Phoenix, and Gila Bend are experiencing highs between 108°F and 114°F. The heat is especially intense in deserts and low-elevation areas, where overnight temperatures remain elevated, offering little relief. This prolonged heat is increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations and those without access to cooling.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Web 3-1750166734081.png">The extreme heat is forecast to persist through Wednesday, with some areas potentially seeing continued elevated temperatures into Thursday. While a slight cooling trend may begin midweek, the National Weather Service warns that heat risks will remain high, especially in desert regions. The Heat Risk tool continues to show “major to extreme” risk levels, indicating that even healthy individuals could be affected without proper precautions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-17 144550-1750193173528.png">Catch your Southwest Regional Forecast each hour at :50 past the hour.

Record Breaking Heat in the Southwest

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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Heavy rain has been no stranger in the south. With ample moisture and a frontal boundary, heavy rain and strong storms have been persistent these last few days. As we look into the overnight hours, a few strong storms will be possible, but most should remain dry. A Marginal threat continues across portions of the Gulf Coast with damaging winds and hail being the primary concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/overnightt stotto-1749605891333.png">The models are struggling to show convection, forecasting little to no rain, if any storms get going, they have the chance to be severe.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/overnighf-1749602614247.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>An isolated threat of flooding will continue along with the storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-10 154657-1749592021450.png">For more details on how this could impact temperatures and wildfire smoke, be sure to tune into WeatherNation at :10 past the hour.

Isolated Severe Threat for the Gulf Overnight

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We saw an active day yesterday across the southeast with severe storms bringing damaging winds and hail. Some portions across the southeast also experienced significant rainfall. Century, Florida saw 3.67" of rain in the last 24 hours. We have another round of strong storms today, as a boundary lingers.<h1>TODAY</h1>More severe weather is possible with clusters of storms moving from the Southern Plains back into the Deep South. The primary threats will be damaging winds and hail.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/severe todayyyaaa-1749574967584.png">TIMING</h1>Some storms have developed, and throughout the day, we can see more activity. As the cold front moves offshore, we can see storm chances decrease for areas like the Carolinas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/jfjfjfjfjfjfjfjfrrrrr-1749575086829.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Rainfall</h1>Heavy rainfall remains a critical concern, with hourly rates surpassing one inch in many areas. This raises the alarm for flash flooding, especially in urban centers and low-lying zones with poor drainage. Not to mention the plentiful rain we've seen in days past. Any pockets of 2-3 inches of rain will lead to flooding issues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-10 071612-1749561380826.png">

Severe Storms Possible Again Today in the Southeast

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CANADA - Massive wildfires continue to burn in the Canadian Prairies, which have lead to evacuations and millions of acres of land, property, and forest burned. These fires are primarily burning in the provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, as well as in Alberta, and a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/report">state of emergency</a> has been declared. According to the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://ciffc.net/">Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre</a>, CIFFC, 224 fires are active in Canada.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-10 070901-1749560950121.png">Smoke Overhead</h1>The smoke from these fires has blanketed the United States, prompting air quality alerts across the Upper Midwest and Northeast. The forecast below shows where smoke will be visible overhead and doesn't necessarily indicate where air quality will be impacted. A trough moving through Canada will help to re-establish northerly flow, allowing thick smoke to return to the Midwest and Northeast on Monday.<h1></h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-10 07-09-52-1749561037774.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Near Surface Smoke / Air Quality Impacts</h1>This model displays where smoke will be most dense near the ground, highlighting areas where air quality impacts are more likely. Air Quality alerts have been dropped, where they were in place for portions of Minnesota and the Great Lakes.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-10 07-10-14-1749561043150.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>While wildfire smoke is covering portions of the Northeast and Midwest, much of the rest of the country is staying relatively smoke free.

More Wildfire Smoke Spills South

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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<h1>Saturday Severe Outlook</h1>Another round of severe storms are in the forecast tonight across the Southern Plains from Texas into the Deep South! Saturday's storms have already produced some large hail and a tornado in Oklahoma!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1747536368556.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1747536420707.png">All modes of severe storms will be in the forecast and that includes the risk of tornadoes and large hail.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/1-1747536477644.png"><h1>Timing</h1>For the rest of tonight, we will see thunderstorms moving into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions. Please have a few ways to receive weather alerts if more warnings are issued!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/New Baron Video 3-1747536618809.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.

More Severe Storms in the Forecast Saturday

Saturday Severe Outlook

Timing

T.S. Erick to Strengthen, Hit Mexico

Eastern Pacific OceanWe are keeping our eyes

100 mph Winds Reported in Kansas with More On The Way

As a frontal boundary moved through unstable

Active Pattern Sparks Mid-Atlantic Flood and Severe Threat

A Moderate Risk for excessive rain has been i

Record Breaking Heat in the Southwest

A powerful heat wave continues to grip the So

Isolated Severe Threat for the Gulf Overnight

Heavy rain has been no stranger in the south.

Severe Storms Possible Again Today in the Southeast

We saw an active day yesterday across the sou

More Wildfire Smoke Spills South

CANADA - Massive wildfires continue to burn i